New Delhi: The Congress leadership had been waiting for 2012 with curiosity and anxiety of a kind usually reserved for a general-election year. The party will be ushering in the new year with an eager welcome, not just because it was keen to escape a 2011 riddled with scandals and agitations but mainly because of its expectations of wide-ranging political change.

The joy, however, will be mixed with trepidation: what if its best-laid plans go haywire? For Sonia Gandhi and son Rahul, the highest priority is to significantly improve the party’s position in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. If achieved, this could lead to new political equations on the national stage.

The second task before them is to install a President and Vice-President of their choice. If these two matters follow script, a third plan — conceived long ago but yet unborn — could start taking shape. It relates to Rahul’s rise to the helm both in party and government. Many senior Congress leaders have long been talking about a dormant plan for a change of guard in 2012, but they all concede that the pace of transition will be tied to the Uttar Pradesh poll results.

The upcoming elections in Punjab and Uttarakhand, apart from Goa and Manipur, are important too. For, the overall result in this round of polls will have a bearing not only on the election of the new President but also on the fate of Anna Hazare’s movement. If the Congress fails to do well enough in these states, it will have to settle for a compromise candidate for both President and Vice-President, which could damage party morale.

However, if the Congress succeeds in dislodging Mayawati and sewing up a majority along with Mulayam Singh Yadav, that will restore the party’s supremacy in national politics and provide it with a robust launch pad for the 2014 general election. A Samajwadi entry into the UPA will bolster the alliance’s numbers in Parliament, which the government badly needs in order to push key economic reforms in 2012. Decisions such as FDI in retail are waiting to be revived after these Assembly elections.

A good showing in these polls will also help the ruling combine correct a big handicap: its lack of majority in the Rajya Sabha. Sixty-eight Elders are to retire in the new year, 60 of them in April by when the new Assemblies would have been constituted. More muscle in the Upper House will also place the government in a better position to push for its kind of Lokpal. But if the expectations from Rahul’s campaign in Uttar Pradesh turn out to be false, these plans may fall flat on their face.

If Mayawati retains the chief minister’s chair with BJP support, the Congress will cease to be a frontrunner for the 2014 race. Even some of its allies may start looking for greener pastures, perhaps giving the BJP a shot in the arm. Some Congress leaders do feel the revival stories from Uttar Pradesh are premature and that the battle for Punjab could be a difficult one. A Congress downswing will open up doors for Team Anna, whose morale now appears a little low.