New Delhi/Lucknow: Rahul Gandhi's relentless campaign in Uttar Pradesh over the last three years seems to finally working for the Congress party after two decades. With four days to go for the first phase of Assembly polling in the state, opinion poll conducted by STAR News-Nielsen predicts Congress winning 79 seats and with partner RLD's 20 seats, the alliance could reach 99 seats.

Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party is winning 135 seats and Mayawati's Bhaujan Samaj Party will be reduced to 101 from its 2007's figure of 206.

The Congress party's move to ally with Ajit Singh seems to be paying off as the survey estimates that the alliance will get 99 seats. Within the alliance, Congress is winning in 79 seats while the RLD is getting 20. Congress alone gets 18 per cent but Congress-RLD in alliance is getting 21 per cent vote share.

The survey is predicting 101 seats for BSP in the 403-member house, a massive drop from their 2007 tally of 206. Samajwadi Party is getting 135 seats, a gain from their 2007 tally of 97. Congress is winning in 79 seats, a huge gain from the 22 seats it had won in 2007 while BJP is finishing with 61, ten seats up from their 2007 tally. RLD is getting 20 seats, up from its 10 in 2007.

BSP is predicted to get only 23 per cent from its 30.43 per cent in the 2007 elections. SP's vote share is 26 per cent, marginal gain from 25.43 per cent in 2007. The BJP is getting only 18 per cent of votes.

The Poll was conducted in 202 assembly constituencies out of the 403 and 35,973 respondents took part in the survey. The complete field work was carried out from 4 to 20 January 2012.

Catch for Congress:
For the Congress party, two important events have not been taken into account in the survey which could have an impact on party's eventual showing.

The Supreme Court decision on cancelling the 2G licenses came just on Thursday which has embarrassed the government while it has not given much relief to home minister P Chidambaram. If the front line Congress minister should be made an accused in the 2G scam or not will be decided by the trial court on Saturday. Congress will wish the government doesn’t suffer a setback in the court.

The other, albeit more favorable, is party's proposed campaign plan for Priyanka Gandhi who could for the first time travel out of Raibarelli and Amethi. Party sources say she could visit as many as 80 Assembly constituencies "to meet the Congress workers". This could have a far reaching impact on Congress' fortunes.

The Highlights:
The STAR News-Nielsen opinion poll throws up the following five highlights:

• It is surely going to be a hung Assembly.
• Ruling BSP losing power after taking massive losses.
• Samajwadi Party emerging single largest party.
• Huge gains for Congress. Their biggest haul in almost 23 years. In 1989 they had won 94 seats.
• BJP making only marginal gains – 51 seats in 2007 to 61 now.
• Without the support of Congress-RLD alliance, government formation in Uttar Pradesh looks difficult.

The region-wise break up shows that the BSP is getting 48 seats in Eastern UP or Poorvanchal, 39 seats in Western UP or Harit Pradesh, 8 seats in Bundelkhand and 6 seats in Central UP or Awadh Pradesh.

The Samajwadi Party is likely to get 71 seats in Eastern UP or Poorvanchal, 38 seats in Western UP or Harit Pradesh, 5 seats in Bundelkhand and 21 seats in Central UP or Awadh Pradesh.

The Congress is likely to get 35 seats in Eastern UP or Poorvanchal, 13 seats in Western UP or Harit Pradesh, 4 seats in Bundelkhand and 27 seats in Central UP or Awadh Pradesh. Party’s alliance partner RLD is getting 20 seats in Western UP alone.

The BJP is getting 21 seats in Eastern UP or Poorvanchal, 33 seats in Western UP or Harit Pradesh, none in Bundelkhand and 7 seats in Central UP or Awadh Pradesh.

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