New Delhi: BJP in Gujarat is yet again set to trample the Congress party in the upcoming assembly polls. ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll has found that BJP will bag a majority of 124 seats in the 182-member assembly, a gain of 7 seats since 2007.
In terms of gains and losses, the Congress which won 59 seats in the 2007 polls, is seen laagering at 51 this time around, a drop of 8 seats compared to the last state elections.
While in terms of vote percentage, the BJP is expected to get 47 per cent of votes, Congress 38 per cent while other parties are projected to get 15 per cent of popular votes.
Keshubhai Patel’s new political party, which is expected to eat into the BJP’s vote base here, can merely hold three seats, according to the survey.
The exit of Keshubhai Patel from the BJP can dent the Congress vote bank as well.
Congress has to admit that they lack a dynamic leader like Narendra Modi and the figures have proven that here is no alternative to the current Gujarat Chief Minister.
An emphatic win in the upcoming elections could well put Modi in pole position to lead his party in the general elections in 2014.
The findings followed a survey of 16,384 voters across 91 constituencies in the state. The complete field work was carried out between 16th and 29th October 2012.
ZONE WISE FORECAST
Saurashtra-Kutch: In this region the BJP is likely to garner 39 seats as the same it captured in 2002. A dismal show for the Congress as it is expected to bag only 11. Others are projected to get four. It means BJP will lose 4 seats in Saurashtra as compared to the last one. Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party can grab 3 seats here.
Central Gujarat: BJP here can occupy 50 % of the seats while the Congress is running close enough to take away 18 out of the 40. This indicates that BJP will gain 2 seats this time while the Congress will lose 4.
North Gujarat: Out of the 53 seats in this region, BJP is rallying ahead with 39 seats while the Congress is likely to manage only 14. Though BJP is expected to lose one and the Congress might gain one here.
South Gujarat: The Congress which put up a tough fight in the 2002 and 2007 elections seems to have lost the plot here as it projected to win only 8 seats. The BJP once again has proved its dominance here by bagging 26 out of the 35 seats. A thumbs-up for BJP as it is seen to capture 8 more seats compared to 2007.